The Journal of Regional Security is an open access peer-reviewed journal specializing in the field of regional security studies published by Belgrade Centre for Security Policy and University of Belgrade/Faculty of Political Science.
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy; University of Belgrade, Faculty of Political Sciences
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Book Review: Robert Jervis´s "How Statesmen Think"
Copyright (c) 2024 Journal of Regional Security
Providing and depriving a sense of ontological security: EU enlargement in North Macedonia
The paper seems to analyse in which ways EU accession can act as a potential source of ontological (in)security by using the case of North Macedonia. After outlining the social and material environment that constitutes the Macedonian identity and in turn acts as a source of ontological security, a qualitative content analysis of 61 text units that were authored by members of Macedonian parliamentary parties is employed. The sample of texts is thereby centred around two critical situations that contested the social and material environment of the Macedonian identity, namely the announcement of the Bulgarian veto in 2020 and the acceptance of the French proposal in 2022. The results of the analysis demonstrate that EU enlargement can both serve as a source of ontological security and insecurity. While governmental parties see EU membership as a protection of the Macedonian identity, the opposition connects the current enlargement framework to its disappearance. Through support from the public and the low credibility of the enlargement policy, the perceived threat towards the own identity that is articulated by the opposition can further slowdown North Macedonia’s pathways to EU membership. The article, therefore, illustrates how an accession process can become deadlocked due to ontological insecurity of parts of the political elite, underlining the importance of intra-state dynamics for the understanding of cases of ontological security.
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The shadow cast by centuries of Russian influence on Eurasia still affects political tensions in the region. Previous studies have examined both Russian foreign policy in the twenty-first century and the implications of parastates on Russia’s periphery. This study focuses on the intersection of these issues, identifying parastates as a political wedge used by Moscow to maintain buffer states between its borders and NATO. It presents a comparative analysis of three parastates that are supported by Russia: Transnistria in Moldova, Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia, and Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan. The study finds that Russia supports post-Soviet parastates to perpetuate political stalemates that undermine stability in countries that act as buffers between Russian and NATO borders. This highlights opportunities for further research on a foreign policy tool that can be used to significantly influence regional security.
Extreme Moderates: Understanding Low Levels of Violent Extremism in Bosnia-Herzegovina
How can low levels of violent extremism in enabling environments be explained? The conflicted political environment and war history of Bosnia-Herzegovina have allowed extra-institutional groups to challenge formal institutions. Despite this, there have been few violent extremist attacks, and those that have been carried out were small-scale and failed to expose any deep reservoir of violent extremism. What, then, does this deviant case reveal? Utilizing social movement theory and political opportunity structures, the article explores how structural conditions in the Bosnian political and discursive space affect the protest repertoires of extremist movements. Two main arguments are put forward. First, extra-institutional groups must be understood as rational actors with broader claims that exceed the use of violence. Second, distinguishing between radicalization that links to violent extremism and radicalization that aims to initiate societal change through non-violent means can help us better understand the dynamics behind societal change in fragile environments.
Stealth Conflicts: Unpacking the Causes of Underreported and Invisible Wars
This study aims to identify the necessary and sufficient conditions that contribute to categorizing certain conflicts as "stealth," meaning significant yet underreported or overlooked, as opposed to conflicts well-covered by the media. Focusing on cases in Asia and Africa from 2014 to 2024, the research employs qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) to assess six conditions for the conflict to be recognized as a stealth conflict derived from Hawkins' theory which explains that conflicts are overlooked when key actors (policy makers, media, the public, and academia) are not engaged due to factors such as national/political interest, geographic proximity and access, ability to identify with conflict participants, ability to sympathize with victims, simplicity (how easy it is to understand a conflict) and sensationalism (involves events that are dramatic and attention-grabbing). Our findings suggest that a lack of simplicity and limited sensationalism are key factors in hindering the visibility of conflicts, especially in regions like West Papua and Balochistan. The analysis reveals that there are two necessary conditions and three sufficient conditions that influence the visibility of conflicts.
Review: Dukalskis, Alexander. 2021. Making the World Safe for Dictatorship, Oxford University Press, 249 pp. $17 (Paperback)
THE BALKAN PEACE INDEX 2023: MONITORING THE REGIONAL PEACE
Scarcity and instability: Transforming societies through equitable distribution mechanisms
Under the framework of SDG 16, one key underexplored area of inclusion relates to the means of ensuring access to justice through the equitable governance of scarce resources, and mechanisms to promote equal and structural access to opportunities across society. This research sets out to answer the following questions across three case studies: (1) What is the relationship between critical or scarce resources and political conflict in the region under study?; (2) On what basis is the scarce or critical resource currently distributed within the region under study?; (3) What formal or informal governance mechanisms are in place to manage access to critical or scarce resources, and resolve conflicts created by it?; and (4) What improvements could be made to ensure more inclusive and equitable access to the distribution of this resource? The three proposed case studies, namely, Central Mali (land), Northeastern Kenya (water), and northern Mozambique (extraction and revenues of natural gas), have unique political and geographic features that are indivisible from peace and security. In each case, a blend of formal and informal mechanisms is used, but these often involve competing mandates, are guided by socio-economic dynamics or are unenforced, potentially leading to different types of localised conflict.
Images of (in)security: visualizing borders, migrants and control in Serbia’s news media
Media images of borders and control have been one of the most dominant frames in reporting on migrant crisis in European media and negative coverage of migrants as threat to security and public health dominates media narratives around the world. This paper examines how the concept of border has been used as a powerful visual narrative in the media representation of the relationship between security and human rights in the context of migration throughout Serbia, a transit country alongside the Western Balkans migration corridor. The mixed method analysis is based on 300 images published in relevant national and regional print media and their online versions from 2015 until 2020. The results show that the visual depiction of walls, wires, control, law and order, modern technological equipment, security providers and important political authorities have been often intensified with sensational headlines and tabloid, fake news coverage and with images framing migrants as violent and deviant and as a threat to borders, people and security.
Copyright (c) 2023 Journal of Regional Security
The Significance of Innovation in the Defence Industry from the End of the Cold War to the War in Ukraine
As a result of the transformation of the defence industry in the last three decades, it has become a pioneer in innovative technologies. This paper presents the revolution in the defence industry, focusing on the factors that have enabled this field to become one of the most innovative sectors. Data were collected through semi-structured, open-ended, in-depth interviews with twenty-five experts from ten European countries and analysed with qualitative content analysis. The results indicate the importance of defence alliances and collaborations, the role of small and medium-sized enterprises and start-ups, the significance of defence innovation in national strategy, and how the new circumstances may change the direction of innovation. However, despite the technological revolution in the defence industry and the aspiration to develop unmanned systems and technologies, humans will always remain a critical factor in strategic and tactical decision-making.
On “Westsplaining,” realism, and technologies of the Self.
The article offers a Foucauldian reading of the Western realist commentary on the Russo-Ukrainian war which often faces the charges of “Westsplaining.” It situates this commentary in the broader context of knowledge production and the power-knowledge nexūs it reproduces and conceptualizes realism as a discourse in the Foucauldian sense. As the article argues, this conceptualization allows one to capture its specific technologies of power which, in this case, can be understood as a form of technology of the Self, or, in other words, the disciplining of the collective subjects of world politics (nation-states) through the specifically realist constructs of rationality and prudence that all states are expected to adhere to in the making of their foreign policy. Additionally, the article suggests that this conceptualization of realism as a discourse can be analytically helpful in making sense of the way in which very different genres such as academic research and the op-ed policy commentary, frequently provided by realist IR scholars, are connected through the political economy of knowledge production, thus forming a relationship of discursive symbiosis and mutual legitimation.
Forming Connections between Security Sector Reform and Sustainable Development: The Potential of the Human Security Paradigm
Many interlinkages already exist between security and development, despite the fact they traditionally maintained separate bodies of literature and compartmentalized presence in policymaking. This article seeks to provide guidance on how to bridge the gap between the two. It focuses on the nexus between Security Sector Reform (SSR) and Sustainable Development Goals, particularly SDG-16 devoted to effective, accountable and inclusive institutions. It argues that the human security paradigm provides the most rewarding approach for bridging the gap between these two, as it centres the focus on the human element of these two endeavours. It first provides an overview of the security-development nexus, followed by a discussion of the commonalities and differences between SSR and SDG-16 specifically, outlining how human security provides a better connection between the two. It concludes that the bottom-up and multistakeholder approaches of the human security paradigm and its context-specific perspective ensure that the SSR missions and attainment of the SDG-16 targets will be more effective and efficient.
Balkan Peace Index 2022: Trends and Analysis
Climate Security in the Northern Mediterranean: Threats and Prospects for Resiliency
The term “corrosive capital” has become a popular phrase in Serbia and across the Western Balkans used to describe opaque and scandalous foreign investments that are believed to enable state capture. Particularly in Serbia, existing approaches to corrosive capital have certainly identified which investments are problematic. However, there is still a lack of understanding about which key actors are culpable for corrosive investments and the practices that enable them. Responsibility is often binarily assigned, either to the Vučić regime or non-Western actors. This paper, however, uses qualitative and quantitative methods to more rigidly investigate the networked structures and practices that bring about corrosive capital. Through the development of an analytical framework and an investigation of the Smederevo Železera privatization, this paper argues that corrosive capital is a multi-level phenomenon enabled by interactions between various domestic and foreign actors used as a tool of state capture and personal enrichment. This paper also notes that informal practices and deal-making between these actors in a project’s early stages generate various spillovers that create an overall mosaic of corrosiveness.
Book Review of "Political Leadership in the European Union"
This paper adapts underbalancing theory to explain regional powers’ decisions when faced with the politics of great power intrusion. The paper finds two situations where regional powers defy expectations and details the causal models using India (1979-1980) and Russia (1996-1999) as illustrative cases. The cases find underbalancing theory wanting at the regional level. In each case, the regional power performs a variety of diplomatic maneuvers—including but not limited to balancing and underbalancing—to mitigate the fallout of great power decisions. This is explained by the power asymmetries dividing great and regional powers, both constraining the actions of regional powers while motivating more creative diplomatic practices. It is said that great powers are “Gullivers,” tied down by their many responsibilities. This paper tells a different story, in which obstinate great powers make decisions without consideration for the locale where those decisions are carried out. It is the regional powers that are tied down by geostrategic position and regional security externalities. However weak or strong, these externalities create threats too salient to ignore. The findings suggest international political processes and outcomes can only be comprehensible by accounting for regional contexts and regional powers.
PUTIN’S UNDERSTANDERS, RUSSIA’S NORMALIZERS: DISCURSIVE PALETTES BEYOND THE WEST – EAST DIVIDE
This Forum focuses on a variety of discourses that in one way or another "understand" and normalize the logic of Putin's war against Ukraine. These discourses have different epistemologies – some of them might simply reproduce Russian propagandistic cliches, while others are embedded in – and adjusted to - specific national contexts; some of them emanate from political milieus, while others have academic pedigrees. Of particular interest for the reader is a comparative frame of the Forum that gives floor to European and non-European perspectives on the topic that at some point resonate, engage, and communicate with each other. The authors discuss social and cultural conditions that produce professional and vernacular narratives sympathetic to or compatible with the Russian officialdom, and deploy them in different theoretical contexts – from neorealist to post-colonial.
The political developments in Ukraine in the past two decades can be analyzed from numerous perspectives. This article highlights the systemic geopolitical outlook. By conceptualizing Ukraine as being located between two qualitatively different types of empires – the EU and Russia – it uncovers some of the systemic causes of the escalation of the Russian incursion into Ukrainian politics. It concludes that as long as the Westphalian empire overestimates its hard-power capabilities, the neomedieval alternative presents a more viable enlargement strategy.
Migration motivations of internally displaced people: The view from Homs
The Syrian conflict led to a countrywide realignment in both territorial and demographic traits with catastrophic consequences for the population. More than 6.6 million people were forced to leave their homeland, and a further 6.7 million became Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs). Lately a subsequent consolidation of the population ensued which witnessed a partial self-repatriation of IDPs. Here, we report the preliminary results of a study to explore migration motives in the framework of the repatriation aid programme provided for these IDPs. The programme is jointly coordinated by the Melkite Greek Catholic Archeparchy of Homs and the Hungary Helps Program, in and around the city of Homs. Moreover, we provide an overview of the geographic territory covered by the programme, and of the relevant events of the conflict which affected IDPs from the region. Key results from our analysis include the observation that individual experiences of traumatisation and deterioration of social status are major contributing factors that fuel resettlement. Our work casts valuable light on the triggers of internal migration and timely guidance to ongoing struggles and newly emerging conflicts such as that of Ukraine in 2022.
Correction: “(En)acting our experience: Combat veterans, veteranality, and building resilience to extremism,” (2022, Vol. 17, No. 2, pp. 267−292)
Langan, Mark. 2017. Neo-Colonialism and the Poverty of ‘Development’ in Africa. Palgrave Macmillan, 253 pp. $29.95 (Softcover)
Introduction to the Forum on Putin’s Understanders, Russia’s Normalizers: Discursive Palettes Beyond the East–West Divide
This Forum focuses on a variety of discourses that in one way or another “understand” and normalize the logic of Putin’s war against Ukraine. These discourses have different epistemologies – some of them might simply reproduce Russian propagandistic cliches, while others are embedded in – and adjusted to – specific national contexts; some of them emanate from political milieus, while others have academic pedigrees. Of particular interest for the reader is a comparative frame of the Forum that gives floor to European and non-European perspectives on the topic that at some point resonate, engage, and communicate with each other. The authors discuss social and cultural conditions that produce professional and vernacular narratives sympathetic to or compatible with the Russian officialdom, and deploy them in different theoretical contexts – from neorealist to post-colonial.
In terms of studying discursive normalization of the Russo-Ukrainian war the Visegrád Four (V4) present us with a stimulating case for regional comparisons. On the one hand, there are obvious intra-regional differences that are rooted in specific identitary legacies and the resulting strategic cultures, which can come into a sharp clash, as they did for example in the case of the public Polish-Hungarian split over the 2022 invasion. Against this background, however, there are also telling points of convergence that arguably have to do with the structural position of the V4 in the European international order and the related historical experience.
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has highlighted the problems of the Japanese academic discourse on Ukraine. This essay has two purposes. First, it describes how Russia’s invasion has altered Tokyo’s official policies and public discourse by driving away Russian disinformation and propaganda narratives while articulating the multiple chasms among academics regarding Ukraine and Russia. Second, it highlights the embedded assumptions commonly seen in many researchers dealing with post-Soviet space: Russia-centered ontology (e.g., “Ukraine is a periphery of Russia”, “fraternal nations”) and anti-hegemonic epistemology that blames the collective West for “Russophobia.”
Brazil Between Global Recognition and Neutrality over the Russian War Against Ukraine
This contribution investigates what explains Brazil's narrative of neutrality in times when neutrality means support for Russia. Brazil’s neutrality narratives can be seen as a consequence of the economic interests of the Brazilian agrobusiness, highly dependent on Russian fertilizers, but also due to its historical tradition of diplomatic neutrality. However, neutrality seems to clash with Brazil’s self-conceptualization of its identity as a relevant player on the international level, especially since the 2000s. Furthermore, I reflect on the implications of Brazil’s narratives following the election of Lula da Silva for Brazil and on how LA might position itself in the near future as this war continues.
Non-Western Responses to Russia’s War in Ukraine
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2 Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Mention"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Smart Hyperlink"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Hashtag"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Unresolved Mention"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Smart Link"/> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><!-- [if gte mso 10]> <![endif]--> The full-scale Russian invasion on February 24th has brought diverse responses in different parts of the world. While the so-called “Western” world responded with strong condemnation, sanctions, and military helps, the “non-Western” world responded more cautiously and hesitantly. Using Indonesia, the current chair of G20 and one of the leading voices in the developing countries, this study traces the diverse narratives of Indonesian political elites and public intellectuals on how to interpret the war in Ukraine, the relationship between Russia and the “non-Western” world, and the NATO factors. Specifically, this contribution looks at how the lack of knowledge about Russia and Ukraine (and Eastern Europe in general), coupled with the strong anti-Western sentiment, has created a more pro-Russian sentiment in the Indonesian narratives about the war. <!-- [if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:OfficeDocumentSettings> <o:RelyOnVML/> <o:AllowPNG/> </o:OfficeDocumentSettings> </xml><![endif]-->
Analogical reasoning: historical parallels and metaphors in the 2022 war narratives in Ukraine and Russia
Analogical reasoning is a discursive strategy often used by decision- and policy-makers, think tankers, academics, and cultural producers to either justify actions or learn lessons from references to events in the past. This comparative essay conceptualizes the drastic distinction between the functioning of analogical reasoning in Russian and Ukrainian discourses during the current war. The author argues that the asymmetry between the two modes of analogical reasoning is glaring when it comes not only to the interpretation of history, but also to the drastically dissimilar emotional modalities, understandings of ontological security and rationality, justice and many other concepts shaping Ukraine’s and Russia’s international agency.
Europe’s Russia-friendly parties put to the test by Putin’s invasion of Ukraine
Russia's attack of Ukraine lunched in February 2022 has turned the Kremlin into a political pariah. Traditionally Russia-friendly parties are increasingly faced with the dilemma of how to deal with new Russia's image and how to frame the war in Ukraine. Since the Kremlin has been traditionally engaging in a multi-channel trans-ideological communication with both radical left and far-right, the two extremes of the political continuum appear equally affected. This piece will discuss and critically assess strategies and short-term tactics as well as attached narratives of such parties both at the national and European level. Specific attention will be devoted to the cases of Italy, France, and Germany.